SIMULATED · ABOVE SAN FRANCISCO

Real city, Google 3D. The arrest that opens our scenario, Threshold, in March 2027, is invented.

Imagery ©Google and its data providers · Cesium ion · For promotional purposes only

A slow aerial arc over San Francisco toward its downtown towers in late-morning side light: the city's tallest tower rises against the hazy Bay while a suspension bridge and an island slide behind it, and the nearer towers cross beneath.

The crisis is simulated. The decisions are real.

Live crisis simulations for policy schools, ministries and leadership teams, played on every phone in the room. AI plays the other side, and every decision goes on the record.

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One crisis, start to finish

Every seat gets a brief no one else reads.

In Threshold, an American AI lab is racing China's, and one of its engineers has been arrested in San Francisco. The scenario is written for thirteen teams, from the White House and Beijing to both labs, a newsroom and the AI models themselves. Below is part of the President's.

FICTIONAL · THRESHOLD, AN AI RACE SET IN MARCH 2027

From the scenario's pack. Threshold has been tested in simulation; it has not yet run with players.

THRESHOLD · ROUND 1, “STOLEN” · EYES ONLY · PRESIDENT

THE CASE AT THE PRESIDENT'S DESK

Ask Assistant Director Ada Mercer what the arrest establishes and what remains an attribution question. Decide whether to attribute publicly and what to withhold. Investigative steps go through the Attorney General. Hear State's assessment before a public accusation becomes your government's position.

Offices such as President are played by participants. Ada Mercer and every other named character on this page is fictional.

Same minute. Different screens.

At 13:15, four of the thirteen teams open the same round on their phones. Each sees its own aim, its own brief and its own news. No team sees another's screen: what reaches a seat, and when, depends on the seat.

FICTIONAL · FOUR SEATS AT 13:15

Each seat reads its own brief. Test captures of the real seat app, on test data; no messages went out.

BEIJING · GENERAL SECRETARY
DEEPCENT · CHIEF EXECUTIVE
THE NEWSROOM · EDITOR
THE MODELS · AGENT-3 MONITOR

One round, on the President's phone.

FICTIONAL · THE PRESIDENT'S PHONE

Test captures of the real seat app and console, on test data. Ada Mercer is an AI-played character.

The FBI is on the line.
Ada Mercer is played by AI. She rings the President's phone and answers questions live, or the player reads the call as text.
What she won't say is the point.
“I will not put the Bureau behind public attribution above moderate confidence on this record.” The transcript stays on the record.
One person holds the clock.
Control runs the clock and the branches, and releases what each seat may learn, and when. No player sees this screen.
Nine seconds. One signature missing.
A move needs a teammate's second signature before the deadline. It hasn't arrived. Unsigned, the draft waits for the next round.
Control puts the ruling on the room's screen.
When results are in, Control cues the room's screen: the public ruling, and scenes on the Theater, the live globe this page opened on.
The ruling lands.
Accepted: public attribution at moderate confidence. Not submitted: the custody review, one signature short. Each result says what it opens next.

The FBI is on the line. Ada Mercer is played by AI. She rings the President's phone and answers questions live, or the player reads the call as text.

The FBI is on the line.
Ada Mercer is played by AI. She rings the President's phone and answers questions live, or the player reads the call as text.
What she won't say is the point.
“I will not put the Bureau behind public attribution above moderate confidence on this record.” The transcript stays on the record.
One person holds the clock.
Control runs the clock and the branches, and releases what each seat may learn, and when. No player sees this screen.
Nine seconds. One signature missing.
A move needs a teammate's second signature before the deadline. It hasn't arrived. Unsigned, the draft waits for the next round.
Control puts the ruling on the room's screen.
When results are in, Control cues the room's screen: the public ruling, and scenes on the Theater, the live globe this page opened on.
The ruling lands.
Accepted: public attribution at moderate confidence. Not submitted: the custody review, one signature short. Each result says what it opens next.

FICTIONAL · THE PRESIDENT'S PHONE
The FBI is on the line.
Ada Mercer is played by AI. She rings the President's phone and answers questions live, or the player reads the call as text.
FICTIONAL · THE PRESIDENT'S PHONE
What she won't say is the point.
“I will not put the Bureau behind public attribution above moderate confidence on this record.” The transcript stays on the record.
FICTIONAL · CONTROL'S CONSOLE
One person holds the clock.
Control runs the clock and the branches, and releases what each seat may learn, and when. No player sees this screen.
FICTIONAL · THE PRESIDENT'S PHONE
Nine seconds. One signature missing.
A move needs a teammate's second signature before the deadline. It hasn't arrived. Unsigned, the draft waits for the next round.
FICTIONAL · CONTROL'S CUES
Control puts the ruling on the room's screen.
When results are in, Control cues the room's screen: the public ruling, and scenes on the Theater, the live globe this page opened on.
FICTIONAL · THE PRESIDENT'S PHONE
The ruling lands.
Accepted: public attribution at moderate confidence. Not submitted: the custody review, one signature short. Each result says what it opens next.

Sealed before the first move. Opened at the debrief.

Before play starts, the hidden facts of the world are sealed, and a second member of staff witnesses the seal on their own device. No one running the exercise can change them afterwards. At the debrief the seal is opened and checked, and the exercise's record is laid out in order.

FICTIONAL · THE SEAL, TYPESET BY THIS PAGE

From the test run's own commitment, made with a public demonstration seed.

THE WORLD IS SEALED

Seal: EB3C E55E 92B6 C481

Full commitment, SHA-256: eb3ce55e92b6c481a4f9c8a6531f6faf
4060398bafcd01585db38531dd0d5256

Sealed before play and witnessed; opened and checked at the debrief.

FICTIONAL · THE RECORD, ROUND 1

Typeset from the seal's run, in which the White House filed no move. The round above is from other captures.

11:44:01The world is sealed and witnessed.
13:15Ada Mercer's call reaches the President as a written account.
13:59Round 1 is ruled, and the results are released.
DebriefThe seal is opened and checked against the record.

One crisis, followed whole. The Theater holds many.

The Theater is a live, photoreal globe built from real map data, shown on the room's screen. It rebuilds real events from open sources, stages invented ones on real ground, and takes instructions by voice.

RECONSTRUCTED · ABOVE THE BAB EL-MANDEB, YEMEN

Real strait, Google 3D. Perim, where Houthi forces landed on 11 Sep 2026; camera and light ours.

SIMULATED · ABOVE THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL, TEXAS

Real tank farm and rail yard, Google 3D. The drone exercise set here is invented; none of it is shown.

RECONSTRUCTED · ABOVE THE HADRAMAWT COAST, YEMEN

Real coast, Google 3D. Mukalla's 30 Dec 2025 strike as flight paths; jets, route and hour ours, in daylight.

High over the dark lava cones and turquoise coves of the Yemeni shore, the camera pushes west across the Bab el-Mandeb toward Perim Island, into a low afternoon sun glaring on the strait, with the African shore faint in the haze beyond.

On 24 September 2026, twelve students at Columbia SIPA sat as a national security council for one afternoon.

WHERE: Columbia SIPA, New York
WHEN: 24 September 2026, one afternoon
EXERCISE: Operation Southern Ledger, a national security council in an invented crisis
SEATS: Twelve students, each on their own phone
PLAYED BY AI: The counterparts, and the press corps at a live press conference
NOT USED THAT DAY: The Theater

NO PICTURE ON THIS PAGE WAS FILMED THAT DAY.

Tested in simulation, not yet run with players: Threshold, the thirteen-team AI race above. Every phone and console screen on this page is a test capture of the real software on test data.

Bring us the decision. We will build the crisis around it.

We design each exercise around what your people need to practise, then run it with you, live.

BRIEFWho will be in the room, and what must they practise?
BUILDWe write the world, the seats, the counterparts and the press.
RUNControl runs the clock. Your people make the calls.
DEBRIEFWe open the seal and walk the record with them.

Book a walkthrough

or write to s@thesituationroom.co

The crisis is simulated. The decisions are real.

Every seat gets a brief no one else reads.

THE CASE AT THE PRESIDENT'S DESK

Same minute. Different screens.

The FBI is on the line.

What she won't say is the point.

One person holds the clock.

Nine seconds. One signature missing.

Control puts the ruling on the room's screen.

The ruling lands.